The national count of swine flu cases has risen to 21,449 cases and the number of deaths have nearly doubled to 87.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the number of confirmed and probable cases Friday morning. The tally is up from the last week’s count of 18,000 cases and 44 deaths.
Wisconsin, Illinois and Texas have had the most reported illnesses, and the Illinois count rose more than 500 since the last report. But CDC officials say much of the most recent flu activity has been in the Northeast. A quarter of the new deaths were in New York.
© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
4 UK students sick with swine flu in China
Four students visiting China from the United Kingdom have been diagnosed with swine flu, and 52 of their classmates and teachers have been quarantined, the British Embassy said Saturday.
The sick students have been hospitalized while the others were under quarantine in a hotel, the embassy said in a statement. The group was in China for language and cultural immersion courses, it said.
It did not give any other details on the cases but said it was trying to establish contact with the students' schools.One student from another group of 362 students and teachers on a similar course organized by the British Council was quarantined for two days this week, the embassy said.
Screening on arrival showed that the student had a raised temperature-a key symptom of infection by the H1N1 virus-but the student from the second group was released when no illness developed, it said.
China's Health Ministry said Friday that 1,537 cases of swine flu had been reported. None has been fatal.
Beijing has been accused in the past of not acting quickly enough to combat the spread of diseases, especially the 2003 global outbreak of SARS. Chastened by that experience and subsequent threats from bird flu, the government this time has acted quickly and decisively to block an outbreak.
But some of its measures have been criticized as excessive, including bans on imports of pork from Mexico, some U.S. states and the province of Alberta in Canada.
At one point, Beijing also canceled the only direct flights between China and Mexico, where the new strain of swine flu was first detected in late April. The tough measures have drawn complaints from Mexico that their citizens were being quarantined based merely on their nationality.
China has defended the steps as necessary to slow the spread of the disease in the world's most populous nation.
The sick students have been hospitalized while the others were under quarantine in a hotel, the embassy said in a statement. The group was in China for language and cultural immersion courses, it said.
It did not give any other details on the cases but said it was trying to establish contact with the students' schools.One student from another group of 362 students and teachers on a similar course organized by the British Council was quarantined for two days this week, the embassy said.
Screening on arrival showed that the student had a raised temperature-a key symptom of infection by the H1N1 virus-but the student from the second group was released when no illness developed, it said.
China's Health Ministry said Friday that 1,537 cases of swine flu had been reported. None has been fatal.
Beijing has been accused in the past of not acting quickly enough to combat the spread of diseases, especially the 2003 global outbreak of SARS. Chastened by that experience and subsequent threats from bird flu, the government this time has acted quickly and decisively to block an outbreak.
But some of its measures have been criticized as excessive, including bans on imports of pork from Mexico, some U.S. states and the province of Alberta in Canada.
At one point, Beijing also canceled the only direct flights between China and Mexico, where the new strain of swine flu was first detected in late April. The tough measures have drawn complaints from Mexico that their citizens were being quarantined based merely on their nationality.
China has defended the steps as necessary to slow the spread of the disease in the world's most populous nation.
More than 3,300 swine flu cases, 15 deaths tallied in Illinois
State health officials say the number of swine flu cases in Illinois has increased to more than 3,300.
There have been 15 deaths in the state from the virus, according to new numbers released Friday by the Illinois Public Health Department.
Three counties are reporting their first cases: Effingham and Fayette counties in south-central Illinois and Henry County in northwestern Illinois. Since April, Illinois has seen 3,357 probable and confirmed cases in 37 counties.
This week's tally rose from last week's by 98 cases. The state expects to receive $11.5 million in grants from the federal government to prepare for both seasonal and swine flu this fall. Chicago will get separate grants totaling nearly $3.3 million.
There have been 15 deaths in the state from the virus, according to new numbers released Friday by the Illinois Public Health Department.
Three counties are reporting their first cases: Effingham and Fayette counties in south-central Illinois and Henry County in northwestern Illinois. Since April, Illinois has seen 3,357 probable and confirmed cases in 37 counties.
This week's tally rose from last week's by 98 cases. The state expects to receive $11.5 million in grants from the federal government to prepare for both seasonal and swine flu this fall. Chicago will get separate grants totaling nearly $3.3 million.
Novartis Says Swine Flu Virus Gives Poor Harvest for Vaccine
Novartis AG said the virus it’s growing to make a vaccine against pandemic flu doesn’t yield much of the antigen needed to protect people.
Lab workers are harvesting one dose or less of the component they need from each egg in which the virus is grown, said Eric Althoff, a spokesman for the Swiss drugmaker. That’s between a third and half of the typical yield for a seasonal flu vaccine, he said.
The low yield may slow production of a pandemic vaccine because it means drugmakers like Novartis, Baxter International Inc., Sanofi-Aventis SA and GlaxoSmithKline Plc can extract less of the protective ingredient from each egg. Baxter’s Chief Executive Officer Robert Parkinson and a spokesman for Sanofi also said yesterday the amount of swine flu virus growing in each egg is lower than for seasonal flu.
The World Health Organization, whose labs supplied the virus to drugmakers, is trying to produce samples that yield more antigen.
“There is work ongoing to improve them,” Novartis Chief Operating Officer Joerg Reinhardt said yesterday on a conference call. “But it’s very difficult to predict what it will be at the end.”
The H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, is sweeping the southern hemisphere as tens of thousands of patients test positive for the virus in Australia, Argentina, Chile and other countries. It’s also spreading in the north outside of the usual flu season. The U.K.’s most senior doctor yesterday said the health service is planning for 65,000 deaths from the disease, which has claimed 429 lives worldwide.
‘Bad Yielder’
“The industry at large is challenged,” Baxter’s Parkinson said yesterday.
Most manufacturers make flu vaccines by injecting chicken eggs with an approved version of the virus to provide it with nutrients to grow and multiply. The amount of virus that grows in the egg and can be turned into shots is called its yield.
All government vaccine orders include a set yield assumption, Andrin Oswald, who heads Novartis’s vaccine unit, told reporters yesterday. One egg will usually produce enough antigen to make two doses of seasonal flu vaccine, according to Oswald.
“It is well known that some strains are good yielders, and some strains are bad yielders,” Marie-Paule Kieny, director of the WHO’s Initiative for Vaccine Research, said in a teleconference on July 13.
“Unfortunately we didn’t come up with a good yielder in the first series of strains,” she said. “To remedy that, the WHO laboratory network is again trying to generate new vaccine viruses” from patients who have been infected. “We hope that one of them will be giving higher yields, comparable to the ones obtained with seasonal vaccines.”
Kieny said the existing strain still allows drugmakers to make a vaccine, test it and submit it to regulators while the WHO hunts for a more promising seed virus.
Vaccine Revenue
The yield also determines the shot’s potential revenue. Novartis swine flu vaccine sales could be worth between $1 billion and $1.5 billion if a single dose is sold for $10, Karl Heinz Koch, an analyst at Helvea SA in Zurich said in a note to clients today. Novartis has not added this revenue to the current sales outlook, Chief Financial Officer Raymund Breu said on a conference call yesterday.
Lab workers are harvesting one dose or less of the component they need from each egg in which the virus is grown, said Eric Althoff, a spokesman for the Swiss drugmaker. That’s between a third and half of the typical yield for a seasonal flu vaccine, he said.
The low yield may slow production of a pandemic vaccine because it means drugmakers like Novartis, Baxter International Inc., Sanofi-Aventis SA and GlaxoSmithKline Plc can extract less of the protective ingredient from each egg. Baxter’s Chief Executive Officer Robert Parkinson and a spokesman for Sanofi also said yesterday the amount of swine flu virus growing in each egg is lower than for seasonal flu.
The World Health Organization, whose labs supplied the virus to drugmakers, is trying to produce samples that yield more antigen.
“There is work ongoing to improve them,” Novartis Chief Operating Officer Joerg Reinhardt said yesterday on a conference call. “But it’s very difficult to predict what it will be at the end.”
The H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, is sweeping the southern hemisphere as tens of thousands of patients test positive for the virus in Australia, Argentina, Chile and other countries. It’s also spreading in the north outside of the usual flu season. The U.K.’s most senior doctor yesterday said the health service is planning for 65,000 deaths from the disease, which has claimed 429 lives worldwide.
‘Bad Yielder’
“The industry at large is challenged,” Baxter’s Parkinson said yesterday.
Most manufacturers make flu vaccines by injecting chicken eggs with an approved version of the virus to provide it with nutrients to grow and multiply. The amount of virus that grows in the egg and can be turned into shots is called its yield.
All government vaccine orders include a set yield assumption, Andrin Oswald, who heads Novartis’s vaccine unit, told reporters yesterday. One egg will usually produce enough antigen to make two doses of seasonal flu vaccine, according to Oswald.
“It is well known that some strains are good yielders, and some strains are bad yielders,” Marie-Paule Kieny, director of the WHO’s Initiative for Vaccine Research, said in a teleconference on July 13.
“Unfortunately we didn’t come up with a good yielder in the first series of strains,” she said. “To remedy that, the WHO laboratory network is again trying to generate new vaccine viruses” from patients who have been infected. “We hope that one of them will be giving higher yields, comparable to the ones obtained with seasonal vaccines.”
Kieny said the existing strain still allows drugmakers to make a vaccine, test it and submit it to regulators while the WHO hunts for a more promising seed virus.
Vaccine Revenue
The yield also determines the shot’s potential revenue. Novartis swine flu vaccine sales could be worth between $1 billion and $1.5 billion if a single dose is sold for $10, Karl Heinz Koch, an analyst at Helvea SA in Zurich said in a note to clients today. Novartis has not added this revenue to the current sales outlook, Chief Financial Officer Raymund Breu said on a conference call yesterday.
Four more London swine flu deaths
The other casualties are a 70-year-old man, a 39-year-old woman and another adult. All of the victims had underlying health problems.
Three other possible swine flu deaths are also being investigated.
NHS London said the latest fatalities, which happened in the past two weeks, bring the total number of swine flu-related deaths in the capital to 10.
The baby died at Royal Free Hospital last week.
Dr Simon Tanner, regional director of public health at NHS London, said: "We would like to extend our deepest sympathies to each of the families affected at this very difficult time. "It is also important that these deaths be kept in perspective.
"All four had underlying health conditions and these upsetting cases should be kept in context with the many people who have had swine flu and recovered just a few days after experiencing a mild illness."
Andy Wapling, head of emergency preparedness at NHS London, said: "We would like to reassure people that NHS London is well-prepared - all NHS organisations have plans which have been practised and checked regularly.
"NHS London has put in place recently audited plans on how to prepare for flu pandemic and ensure that anyone who needs help will receive it."
Twenty-nine people have now died in the UK after contracting swine flu and the number of new cases hit 55,000 last week.
The NHS has seen a surge in calls and consultations.
Ministers in England have responded by promising the National Flu Service will go live at the end of next week to relieve pressure on hospitals and GPs.
The government has also warned that deaths from swine flu this winter could be between 19,000 and 65,000 in the UK.
Three other possible swine flu deaths are also being investigated.
NHS London said the latest fatalities, which happened in the past two weeks, bring the total number of swine flu-related deaths in the capital to 10.
The baby died at Royal Free Hospital last week.
Dr Simon Tanner, regional director of public health at NHS London, said: "We would like to extend our deepest sympathies to each of the families affected at this very difficult time. "It is also important that these deaths be kept in perspective.
"All four had underlying health conditions and these upsetting cases should be kept in context with the many people who have had swine flu and recovered just a few days after experiencing a mild illness."
Andy Wapling, head of emergency preparedness at NHS London, said: "We would like to reassure people that NHS London is well-prepared - all NHS organisations have plans which have been practised and checked regularly.
"NHS London has put in place recently audited plans on how to prepare for flu pandemic and ensure that anyone who needs help will receive it."
Twenty-nine people have now died in the UK after contracting swine flu and the number of new cases hit 55,000 last week.
The NHS has seen a surge in calls and consultations.
Ministers in England have responded by promising the National Flu Service will go live at the end of next week to relieve pressure on hospitals and GPs.
The government has also warned that deaths from swine flu this winter could be between 19,000 and 65,000 in the UK.
Swine Flu Vaccines Being Tested: Vaccine Expected To Be Available In November
Researchers at the University of Antwerp are currently comparing 4 potential vaccines for H1N1v, also known as swine flu or Mexican flu. 300 to 400 volunteers will be recruited for the tests. “There is a good chance that a Mexican flu vaccine is available early November”, expects vaccine expert prof. dr. Pierre van Damme, director of the Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination (CEV), a department of the Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO) at the University of Antwerp.“We were contacted by a number of vaccine producers to test their vaccines as soon as they had a test version”, explains Van Damme. “The CEV can look back on more than 20 years of experience in the scientific evaluation of test vaccines for different producers. We have been cooperating with some of these vaccine companies for many years. Obviously, they do not want to lose time now. That is why the number of test centres has been limited.” Together with the University of Antwerp, the University of Ghent and some centres in Finland, France and Germany are involved in the testing.
“Most producers will have their test vaccines ready by the middle or end of August” says Van Damme. “But a vaccine can only be launched on the market when is has been tested on healthy volunteers. This procedure is also followed for other test vaccines. The vaccination of volunteers will take place in the course of August and September, because all test vaccines come with a vaccination scheme of 2 doses.”
Vaccine probably available from beginning of November
Van Damme expects the final test results in October. "Then the test reports will be delivered to the proper authorities (e.g. EMEA) and it is up to them to give the go-ahead to the vaccine. Consequently, the mass production can start and a few weeks later the vaccine can be launched. This means that a vaccine will probably be available by the beginning of November.”
Van Damme points out that the production will not immediately be sufficient to vaccinate everyone. “That’s way most countries are now identifying target groups to be vaccinated first. It concerns people with crucial professions during a pandemic (e.g. health workers), standard high-risk groups (e.g. people aged over 65 with underlying disorders or people who are chronically ill) and potentially also young children because they can play an important role in the spreading of the flu.”
Time pressure
Van Damme confirms that there is time pressure, but emphasises the need to follow the standard evaluation procedure. “Luckily, this procedure is very similar to the one we use with the winter flu, for which we also use a killed or inactivated vaccine. So we know what side effects we can expect, and we can be certain that the test vaccine will not cause flu symptoms.”
Whether the vaccine will be available on time, is an open question. “On the basis of recent epidemiological data, we estimate the chance that the Mexican flu will quietly fade away (as SARS did a few years ago) to be nearly zero. The data from Spain and the United Kingdom clearly show an increasing spread of the Mexican flu. It is still not clear what the course of the disease will be, but currently the disease symptoms and complications seem to be in the order of the annual winter flu. This situation can continue, but there is also a chance that the flu becomes more serious, for instance when the virus mutates or exchanges genetic material with other winter flu viruses that start circulating. We need to be prepared for these scenarios as well.”
“Most producers will have their test vaccines ready by the middle or end of August” says Van Damme. “But a vaccine can only be launched on the market when is has been tested on healthy volunteers. This procedure is also followed for other test vaccines. The vaccination of volunteers will take place in the course of August and September, because all test vaccines come with a vaccination scheme of 2 doses.”
Vaccine probably available from beginning of November
Van Damme expects the final test results in October. "Then the test reports will be delivered to the proper authorities (e.g. EMEA) and it is up to them to give the go-ahead to the vaccine. Consequently, the mass production can start and a few weeks later the vaccine can be launched. This means that a vaccine will probably be available by the beginning of November.”
Van Damme points out that the production will not immediately be sufficient to vaccinate everyone. “That’s way most countries are now identifying target groups to be vaccinated first. It concerns people with crucial professions during a pandemic (e.g. health workers), standard high-risk groups (e.g. people aged over 65 with underlying disorders or people who are chronically ill) and potentially also young children because they can play an important role in the spreading of the flu.”
Time pressure
Van Damme confirms that there is time pressure, but emphasises the need to follow the standard evaluation procedure. “Luckily, this procedure is very similar to the one we use with the winter flu, for which we also use a killed or inactivated vaccine. So we know what side effects we can expect, and we can be certain that the test vaccine will not cause flu symptoms.”
Whether the vaccine will be available on time, is an open question. “On the basis of recent epidemiological data, we estimate the chance that the Mexican flu will quietly fade away (as SARS did a few years ago) to be nearly zero. The data from Spain and the United Kingdom clearly show an increasing spread of the Mexican flu. It is still not clear what the course of the disease will be, but currently the disease symptoms and complications seem to be in the order of the annual winter flu. This situation can continue, but there is also a chance that the flu becomes more serious, for instance when the virus mutates or exchanges genetic material with other winter flu viruses that start circulating. We need to be prepared for these scenarios as well.”
Five students at MICA diagnosed with probable swine flu
Five students in a Maryland Institute College of Art summer program have been diagnosed with probable H1NI influenza infections, commonly known as swine flu, a college spokeswoman said Friday.
Three of the students enrolled in MICA's pre-college program who were showing symptoms have gone home, said Kathleen Murray, the spokeswoman. One student has been isolated, as recommended by the Baltimore City Health Department, and another is asymptomatic, beyond the seven-day period of infection, Murray said.
The Health Department notified MICA of the probable infections Thursday afternoon, and an e-mail was sent to parents, faculty, staff and students that night, Murray said. As of Friday morning, no new cases had been reported, and the five students were recovering, Murray said.
Pre-college program attendees, typically high school students, stay together in a MICA residence hall, but Health Department officials said there was no need to close any buildings or shut down the program, Murray said.
"The only recommendation was to isolate the five students," she said.
MICA's building services staff was instructed to sanitize surfaces such as elevator buttons more frequently. Sanitizer was also available at guard desks, college offices and in dining facilities.
Maryland health officials have confirmed 732 cases of swine flu. Three of those infected have died from the virus.
Summer camps are feeling the impact. Two children were sent home from a Harford County camp after testing positive for swine flu, health officials said this week. Sandy Hill Camp in Cecil County sent campers home midway through a two-week session last week after 19 children came down with flulike symptoms in 48 hours.
The Muscular Dystrophy Association canceled more than half of its weeklong camp sessions - including two scheduled for Camp Maria in Leonardtown - amid fears that children with already compromised immune systems could become critically ill if they came down with flu, something that is more likely in a setting of shared cabins and meals in close quarters.
Baltimore Sun reporter Mary Gail Hare contributed to this article.
Three of the students enrolled in MICA's pre-college program who were showing symptoms have gone home, said Kathleen Murray, the spokeswoman. One student has been isolated, as recommended by the Baltimore City Health Department, and another is asymptomatic, beyond the seven-day period of infection, Murray said.
The Health Department notified MICA of the probable infections Thursday afternoon, and an e-mail was sent to parents, faculty, staff and students that night, Murray said. As of Friday morning, no new cases had been reported, and the five students were recovering, Murray said.
Pre-college program attendees, typically high school students, stay together in a MICA residence hall, but Health Department officials said there was no need to close any buildings or shut down the program, Murray said.
"The only recommendation was to isolate the five students," she said.
MICA's building services staff was instructed to sanitize surfaces such as elevator buttons more frequently. Sanitizer was also available at guard desks, college offices and in dining facilities.
Maryland health officials have confirmed 732 cases of swine flu. Three of those infected have died from the virus.
Summer camps are feeling the impact. Two children were sent home from a Harford County camp after testing positive for swine flu, health officials said this week. Sandy Hill Camp in Cecil County sent campers home midway through a two-week session last week after 19 children came down with flulike symptoms in 48 hours.
The Muscular Dystrophy Association canceled more than half of its weeklong camp sessions - including two scheduled for Camp Maria in Leonardtown - amid fears that children with already compromised immune systems could become critically ill if they came down with flu, something that is more likely in a setting of shared cabins and meals in close quarters.
Baltimore Sun reporter Mary Gail Hare contributed to this article.
Swine flu cancels camp for children with HIV/AIDS
MILWAUKEE - A camp session in Minnesota for children with HIV or AIDS has been canceled after two volunteers tested positive for swine flu.
One Heartland, a Milwaukee-based charity, had planned to start the weeklong camp session in Willow River in eastern Minnesota on Friday.
One Heartland founder and CEO Neil Willenson says there are no known cases of swine flu among children who already attended the camp this summer. But he says the camp session was canceled out of concern for campers and volunteers.
One Heartland offers the summer camps for homeless children and children with HIV or AIDS.
One Heartland, a Milwaukee-based charity, had planned to start the weeklong camp session in Willow River in eastern Minnesota on Friday.
One Heartland founder and CEO Neil Willenson says there are no known cases of swine flu among children who already attended the camp this summer. But he says the camp session was canceled out of concern for campers and volunteers.
One Heartland offers the summer camps for homeless children and children with HIV or AIDS.
Good News - Cherie Blair Gets Swine Flu - Pigs Strike
There will be no more bacon until Cherie Blair reveals where she got her swine flu.
The probability exists that Ms Blair has used undue influence to obtain a better virus than that available to the man in the street. Parliamentary Expenses investigators are pursuing several lines of enquiry.Swine are concerned that they will be blammed if a more virulent virus mutates during Ms Blair's illness.
The combination of Grinning Gibbon Flu with Swine flu is awful to contemplate.
Ugly, greedy, frogmouthed people with legal training would however be the most likely victims and the almost certain prospect of the death of most lawyers is some comfort.
The British Pig Herd has withdrawn its support of the manufacture of Swine Flu vaccine and has set up picket lines at plasma collection centres.
Mr Tony Blair, Centre of the Universe was advised by the Dark Lord Mangelson, not to comment.
The probability exists that Ms Blair has used undue influence to obtain a better virus than that available to the man in the street. Parliamentary Expenses investigators are pursuing several lines of enquiry.Swine are concerned that they will be blammed if a more virulent virus mutates during Ms Blair's illness.
The combination of Grinning Gibbon Flu with Swine flu is awful to contemplate.
Ugly, greedy, frogmouthed people with legal training would however be the most likely victims and the almost certain prospect of the death of most lawyers is some comfort.
The British Pig Herd has withdrawn its support of the manufacture of Swine Flu vaccine and has set up picket lines at plasma collection centres.
Mr Tony Blair, Centre of the Universe was advised by the Dark Lord Mangelson, not to comment.
New Push in H1N1 Flu Fight Set for Start of School
U.S. health officials are preparing intensively to combat an anticipated wave of outbreaks of the new H1N1 flu when children return to school and the pace of cases picks up.
Kenya Bell, left, stands with daughter, Nyeree, who along with several others came down with the flu at an American Lung Association camp in California.
Identified by scientists just three months ago, the new swine-flu virus has reached nearly every country, spreading tenaciously with what the World Health Organization this week called "unprecedented speed." Rather than die down in the summer as some experts initially expected, it is continuing to proliferate even in countries like the U.S. and U.K. that are in the full bloom of summer, when the march of influenza normally slows down. It is also spreading rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere.
Anne Schuchat, chief of immunization and respiratory diseases at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Friday that the agency expects an increase in cases before the normal start of the flu season in mid-autumn, because children are likely to spread it to one another once they go back to school. Infectious diseases normally spread readily among children, and this virus has hit children and young adults harder than the elderly, who normally suffer the heaviest toll from flu.
"We've seen it in camps and military units," Dr. Schuchat said. "I'm expecting when school reopens and kids are all back together, in some communities at least we may see an increase."
The number of confirmed U.S. infections is now 40,617, with 263 deaths, the CDC said Friday. But the agency believes that more than one million people have been infected and weren't tested for the virus or didn't visit a doctor. The disease has become so widespread that the agency will probably suspend tallying individual case counts within the next few weeks and focus instead on tracking clusters, severe cases, deaths and other unusual events -- a more traditional approach to tracking diseases, Dr. Schuchat said.
The CDC would be following the WHO, which said on Thursday that it is abandoning individual case counts.
Most of those who have the new flu get only mildly ill for a few days and don't need treatment. But officials are concerned about the virus because it is new and could easily mutate and become more virulent as it spreads through the population. Argentina declared a nationwide animal-health emergency Friday after finding the virus possibly jumped from humans to two pig herds, a development that flu experts say could potentially spur mutations. The country's death toll from the virus stands at 137.
Global officials are also concerned because the new H1N1 virus has caused severe illness in some children and young people. Some recently published studies suggest it can cause more severe illness than seasonal flu. Deaths from flu are normally rare among children and young adults, who account for the bulk of the U.S. deaths from the pandemic strain. Nor is it clear why the virus is striking pregnant women, as well as people with asthma, diabetes and other conditions hard.
To combat the virus, federal officials are preparing to mount a massive immunization campaign, and are also urging communities, businesses and individuals to make contingency plans for possible school closures, multiple employee absences for illness, surges of patients in hospitals and other effects of potentially widespread outbreaks.
Clinical trials are expected to begin later this month to test whether a vaccine developed to combat the virus is safe and effective, and the CDC is working with state and local public-health authorities to figure out how to get as many as 600 million doses, or two for every U.S. resident, into people's arms. Results of the trials aren't expected until early October, but officials say they expect to have the first 100 million doses of vaccine ready by mid-October.
The WHO and some vaccine manufacturers reported this week that the vaccine was proving difficult to manufacture because the viruses used to make the shots are yielding only 25% to 50% of the active ingredient they normally get for flu vaccines.
But Dr. Schuchat said that wasn't affecting the U.S. government's plans. "We haven't heard news that has changed our expectations for vaccine availability in the fall," she said. "Based on what has been described to us so far, it's within the range of our planning assumptions, but that doesn't mean we won't have more surprises."
Kenya Bell, left, stands with daughter, Nyeree, who along with several others came down with the flu at an American Lung Association camp in California.
Identified by scientists just three months ago, the new swine-flu virus has reached nearly every country, spreading tenaciously with what the World Health Organization this week called "unprecedented speed." Rather than die down in the summer as some experts initially expected, it is continuing to proliferate even in countries like the U.S. and U.K. that are in the full bloom of summer, when the march of influenza normally slows down. It is also spreading rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere.
Anne Schuchat, chief of immunization and respiratory diseases at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Friday that the agency expects an increase in cases before the normal start of the flu season in mid-autumn, because children are likely to spread it to one another once they go back to school. Infectious diseases normally spread readily among children, and this virus has hit children and young adults harder than the elderly, who normally suffer the heaviest toll from flu.
"We've seen it in camps and military units," Dr. Schuchat said. "I'm expecting when school reopens and kids are all back together, in some communities at least we may see an increase."
The number of confirmed U.S. infections is now 40,617, with 263 deaths, the CDC said Friday. But the agency believes that more than one million people have been infected and weren't tested for the virus or didn't visit a doctor. The disease has become so widespread that the agency will probably suspend tallying individual case counts within the next few weeks and focus instead on tracking clusters, severe cases, deaths and other unusual events -- a more traditional approach to tracking diseases, Dr. Schuchat said.
The CDC would be following the WHO, which said on Thursday that it is abandoning individual case counts.
Most of those who have the new flu get only mildly ill for a few days and don't need treatment. But officials are concerned about the virus because it is new and could easily mutate and become more virulent as it spreads through the population. Argentina declared a nationwide animal-health emergency Friday after finding the virus possibly jumped from humans to two pig herds, a development that flu experts say could potentially spur mutations. The country's death toll from the virus stands at 137.
Global officials are also concerned because the new H1N1 virus has caused severe illness in some children and young people. Some recently published studies suggest it can cause more severe illness than seasonal flu. Deaths from flu are normally rare among children and young adults, who account for the bulk of the U.S. deaths from the pandemic strain. Nor is it clear why the virus is striking pregnant women, as well as people with asthma, diabetes and other conditions hard.
To combat the virus, federal officials are preparing to mount a massive immunization campaign, and are also urging communities, businesses and individuals to make contingency plans for possible school closures, multiple employee absences for illness, surges of patients in hospitals and other effects of potentially widespread outbreaks.
Clinical trials are expected to begin later this month to test whether a vaccine developed to combat the virus is safe and effective, and the CDC is working with state and local public-health authorities to figure out how to get as many as 600 million doses, or two for every U.S. resident, into people's arms. Results of the trials aren't expected until early October, but officials say they expect to have the first 100 million doses of vaccine ready by mid-October.
The WHO and some vaccine manufacturers reported this week that the vaccine was proving difficult to manufacture because the viruses used to make the shots are yielding only 25% to 50% of the active ingredient they normally get for flu vaccines.
But Dr. Schuchat said that wasn't affecting the U.S. government's plans. "We haven't heard news that has changed our expectations for vaccine availability in the fall," she said. "Based on what has been described to us so far, it's within the range of our planning assumptions, but that doesn't mean we won't have more surprises."
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