What we do and don’t know about swine flu

PLANNING on throwing a swine flu party for your kids and their friends?

Don’t.

That’s the advice of medical experts on both sides of the Atlantic. They’ve sounded a public alarm recently over reports some parents have been considering the idea as a way to expose their children to the supposedly "mild" current form of the virus, so they’ll be better protected if the bug mutates into something far deadlier this fall and winter.

Upon reading these news reports, however, it’s soon clear that nobody’s actually thrown such a "party." So far, it’s just been online chatter in forums for parents about the idea, one based on actual "chicken pox parties" that took place, based on somewhat similar logic, years ago.

Ah, well. You can’t blame experts for trying to nip such foolishness in the bud.

It’s true, people who’ve caught swine flu have, in the vast majority of cases, been relatively mildly affected. But experts like Canada’s top public health officer, Dr. David Butler-Jones, point out the virus is unpredictable; younger people in good health have become severely ill and died.

Within this tale, meanwhile, lurks the greatest, potentially deadliest unknown: Will the 2009 swine flu outbreak mimic the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic?

Nearly a century ago, as the First World War drew to a close, the Spanish influenza virus caused a round of mild cases of flu in the spring of that year. The bug returned with a vengeance that fall and the following winter, killing more than 50 million people worldwide.

Like the Spanish flu, the swine flu virus is also of the H1N1 subtype of the influenza A strain.

Canada, like many other developed countries, is getting ready, in case.

The country already has a deal with GlaxoSmithKline for its new swine flu vaccine, expected to be ready by this fall. Dr. Butler-Jones says Canadians may need three flu shots this year — the regular one, plus two swine flu shots a month apart. He’s optimistic the program will be wrapped up by Christmas.

Canada also has a significant stockpile of antiviral medications; enough, it’s said, to treat a quarter of the entire population. That’s more than sufficient, experts say, based on the assumption that only a fraction of Canadians who get swine flu would become sick enough to be hospitalized and need antiviral treatments.

Something else to ponder. Statistically, health experts say, swine flu victims in Canada seem to be younger, under age 20, and get relatively sicker than in other nations such as the U.S., Britain and Australia. The need for advanced ventilators — which enable a person severely ill with swine flu to breathe — seems greater here in Canada, as well.

Ottawa is trying to buy more ventilators. In Nova Scotia, meanwhile, health officials are reviewing current numbers of ventilators to assess need.

The World Health Organization has also warned that indigenous populations, like Australia’s Aboriginals and Canada’s native peoples, are more vulnerable to the effects of a flu pandemic due to impoverished living conditions and low quality health care.

There have been reports of native communities in northern Manitoba being hard hit by swine flu.

While this is all sobering news, it’s also important to remember that swine flu, for all the coverage it has received thus far, has to date killed just a small fraction of the number of people who die annually due to the regular seasonal flu.

According to the WHO’s website, as of Monday the official worldwide count was 94,512 cases, with just 429 deaths. Canada’s totals were 7,983 cases and 25 deaths.

In comparison, the seasonal flu kills 250,000 or more people each and every year.

The difference, of course, is that the regular flu proves most deadly for the elderly, while swine flu seems less a problem for people over age 50 than for younger, even healthy adults.

And, of course, the unknown is whether we’re only seeing a small first wave of illness now, while a tsunami is coming.

There is hopeful research, by New Zealand and Dutch teams, that suggests the new swine flu virus is perhaps less dangerous than originally thought, but the point is no one really knows for sure, yet.

The best advice remains to practise good hygiene and plan to get vaccinated.